Business Finance Bulletin for Week of 10^th August 2020

The Bank of England calls on banks to help avoid another credit crunch; economic woes are affecting demand for Asset Finance ; and the areas and sectors in the UK that are using CBILS and Bounce Bank loans; all of this in the latest Business Finance Bulletin.

Calls to Avoid Another Credit Crunch

In a previous bulletin I mentioned that I had concerns that we may be seeing another credit crunch by the tail end of this year, and certainly in 2021. Well, it seems that the Bank of England also have similar concerns.

One of the many committees the Bank of England has is the Financial Policy Committee. That committee has responsibility to monitor and oversee risks that the UK economy could face. The latest committee report has suggested they are concerned that banks may not be there to meet the cash requirements of UK businesses.

The committee estimates that there’s probably going to be about £200 billion demand for finance as businesses come out of lockdown and start growing again. One concern is that the banks may not be there to meet that demand. Now, the committee recognises that the banks have done extremely well in supporting businesses before and during lockdown, with an estimated £70 billion of net borrowing distributed; net borrowing, means new money lent out, less money’s paid back.

Of course there are alternative sources of finance. And one thing that popped up last week, IWOCA, an alternative cashflow lender has tapped into a £100 million of funding. It has gone to all of the UK banks and said, “If you’re not happy to support your clients, we further them over to us.” We can see that the alternative finance sector is already stepping into the gap that perhaps may be left by the banks. Interesting developments, so watch this space in order to make sure that you are ahead of the game when it comes to raising finance,

That’s a huge slug of money, primarily sourced via CBILs and Bounce Back Loans. However, with this £200 billion gap, the Bank of England wants to make sure that the banks are there to meet that demand. They are concerned that with insolvencies going to be on the increase, the banks are going to be faced with even bigger losses and therefore will contract and step back from the market in order to conserve their capital. Obviously the Bank of England doesn’t want that, so it’s making an early call to banks to say, “Hey banks, we’re watching you. We want you to be out there supporting UK businesses in 2021”.

Fall in Demand for Asset Finance

Let’s move on now to demand for finance and interesting figures out from the Finance and Leasing Association. Its members are responsible for issuing facilities such as HP and leasing to finance the purchase of capital and machinery.

The figures are for June 2020 and in the month of June, 2020, compared to the month of June, 2019, the total volumes of business written by that sector was down by 41%. That just shows how big the change in the market has been. If we look at the first six months of 2020 versus the first six months of 2019 there, the drop in the volume of business was down by 32%. If we look at the last quarter, the second quarter of 2020 versus the second quarter of 2019, the drop has been a massive 49% in terms of volumes of business written, yes, nearly 50% drop.

What’s driving this?

There are two things. First of all, it’s lack of investment appetite amongst businesses. Many of them are very cautious at the moment, sitting back and watching the market and really don’t want to commit to any capital expenditure at the moment. However, on the other side, we’ve also got many businesses which do want to invest, and instead of obtaining finance have said that they are going to use funds, released via Bounce Bank loans, and CBILs loans. Yes, they’re going to use cash instead of using finance facilities. So, two things at play here.

CBILS and Bounce Back Loan Updates

Closing this week’s Bulletin, our usual look at what’s going on in the CBILs and Bounce Back Loan market. Now, before I take my usual look at the number of facilities drawn, I want to review a report issued by the British Business Bank, which focuses on areas and also sectors that have accessed these government loan support schemes.

First of all, CBILs loans outside of London and the Southeast, where many of businesses are based, it’s businesses based in the East of England that have taken out the most CBILs loans. In terms of Bounce Back Loans, again, excluding London and the Southeast, it’s businesses based in the Northwest, who’ve taken out the largest number of Bounce Back loans. If we look across the UK in terms of where businesses are registered and who’s accessed loans, it’s quite evenly spread and the numbers kind of match each other. It’s good to see a good even spread of businesses accessing support.

In terms of what’s going on in the scheme, figures to the 2nd of August have been released and in total, the amount accessed via the scheme now stands at £50.7 billion. How does this break down? In terms of Bounce Back loans, the number of loans distributed stand at 1,135,575 with £34.3 billion issued, at an approval rate of 82%.

In terms of CBILs loans, the number of loans distributed stands at 58,595 with £13.1 billion issued with an approval rate of 49%, a slight dip on the kind of average of 50%. So again, many businesses still unable to access CBILs. As I’ve mentioned over time, with the CBILs loans coming out with very low acceptance rates, don’t forget, there are many alternative providers out there who can step into that funding gap and help you out. We can see lots of businesses still accessing these schemes, but don’t forget the CBILs ends at the end of September. So, if you’re thinking of applying, you need to get in quick,

Wrap Up

That’s it for another Bulletin and I hope you enjoyed watching. If you did, please, don’t forget to subscribe to this channel and also give it a like and, a share. That’s it, and I look forward to being with you again, next time. And in the meantime, have a great successful, profitable and safe week.

Business Finance Bulletin 3^rd August 2020

UK banks have set aside significant sums in anticipation of loan losses; how does this impact you? How businesses have been saving costs over the last few months; and mixed messages on business confidence… all of this in the latest Business Finance Bulletin

Bank Loan Loss Provisions

Let’s start this Bulletin with a topic I’ve never covered before. In the previous 308 episodes of the Business Finance Bulletin, I’ve never looked at bank profit performance.

Why am I interested this time?

Well, over the last seven to ten days, the UK banks have started releasing their half year profit figures, and there’s one figure that really stands out, that could impact on you. That is the amount of money that banks are anticipated to lose through loans going bad or not being paid.

The banks have been setting aside a new loan provision figure. This reflects their view on the economy and the amount they’re setting aside in anticipation of loans going bad is quite significant.

For example, Barclays Bank have set aside an additional £1.6 billion for anticipated loan losses.

Lloyds, they set aside an additional 2.4 billion.

NatWest, an additional 2.2 billion and Santander, £376 million.

In total, it’s just over 6 billion pounds of new anticipated loan provisions that the banks have set aside.

Now this excludes the Bounce Back Loans because we know the government guarantees a hundred percent of the Bounce Back loans. There’s been £34 billion of Bounce Back loans distributed, and 40% of that it’s about £14 billion of Bounce Back loans are likely to go bad.

How does this impact you?

I mentioned in a previous Bulletin, I think there’s a credit crunch coming in 2021. It’s clear that if the banks are anticipating significant loan losses, it’s confirmed their appetite to support small businesses with new debt is going to be very much lower. So what does this mean for you?

If you are looking to get extra cash in order to supplement working capital, you really have to be approaching your lenders early because you may not get the answer you want. You may have to look at alternative sources of finance, and this could take time if the market is contracting in terms of sources of finance. So, plan early.

Don’t forget, if you did jump quickly and get a Bounce Back loan of up to £50,000, don’t forget with the CBILs facility, which is a higher amount, you can actually include an amount to refinance an existing Bounce Back loan. So, if you apply for £150,000, £50,000 of that can go to refinance your Bounce Back loan. Use that window of opportunity because the CBILs facility closes in September. So, we can see there’s a lot of headwinds around. If you are looking to raise finance, plan early.

Business Cost Reductions

For the last few months, many businesses have seen sales and turnover going down, but many businesses have been able to offset the pain via reduction in costs and overheads.

So where have businesses been saving money?

Well, an interesting survey has come out from Hitachi Capital Invoice Finance. They found in this latest survey, 64% of businesses say they still have employees working from home, and naturally this does involve some cost saving for the business.

So where are these savings?

From the businesses surveyed,

53% of them said they are saving on employee food and drink;

48% saving on employee travel.;

45% on cleaning services

36% saving on catering for client meetings

and 36% say they are saving on rent and utilities.

So what’s the total amount on average that they are saving? Well, 70% of the firms said that on average, they are saving £840 per month; about £10,000 a year.

Not a small sum. It doesn’t offset the total drop in income, but hey, at least it does take away some of that pain.

The message is to continually review and challenge your costs Take a look at your bank statement, review all of the entries going out and ask, does that particular debit add value to my business or is it a cost that I can safely slash for now?

After all, it’s the businesses that have got a good control on overheads are the ones who will come out in a much stronger position.

Business Confidence Levels

Let’s close this Bulletin by taking a look at business confidence and the mixed messages that are coming out from various surveys.

First of all, Lloyds Bank’s monthly Business Barometer review. That showed some good news with confidence levels showing a month-on-month increase since the low in March. Also economic sentiment, that’s also increasing as well.

It’s good to see that some businesses are starting to feel a little bit more confident, but of course, that confidence level is well off the long-term average reported in that series from Lloyds Bank.

On the flip side, though, not such good news from the FSB quarterly Small Business Index. There, 23% of businesses surveyed said that the next three months is definitely going to be worse for them than the previous three months. So, there are some businesses that are looking ahead which feel well away from coming out of the danger zone. It just shows that many businesses are probably balancing on a bit of a knife edge.

If you’re in that position, don’t forget, it’s all about getting the right advice now, so please do reach out to your accountant and your other professional advisors. If you’re in the position where you’re not feeling that safe, of course, keep watching the Business Finance Bulletin and I’ll have lots of tips for you on how to make sure that you get yourself back onto an even financial keel.

Wrap Up

That’s it for another Bulletin. As ever, I hope you enjoyed watching it, and if you did, please, don’t forget to give it a, like and a share.

That’s it. I hope you have a safe, successful, and healthy week and I look forward to being with you again next time.